Inserisci una descrizione per Indice Materiali Irak
da salvo == IL PUNTO SULLA GUERRA ==
IL PUNTO SULLA GUERRA (in questo periodo, un po' caldo, terrò questa scheda sulla guerra aperta su Wiki e aggiornata continuamente, ad uso della redazione, chiunque può prendere e inserire elementi, dati, valutazioni, indicazioni, numeri ecc.)
domenica 9 marzo 2003
FINALE DI PARTITA
Lunedì 10 Usa e GB presenteranno la loro risoluzione (quella che dovrebbe sostituire la 1441 e che dovrebbe autorizzare un'aggressione all'Iraq). Martedì 11 gli Usa sembra che vogliano andare al VOTO anche sapendo di una sconfitta (queste la tesi più accreditata, ma alcuni dicono che Bush ritirerà la bozza di Risoluzione all'ultimo momento quando sarà sicuro di non avere la maggioranza) al Consiglio di Sicurezza. Continua la "caccia al voto" da parte di Usa e Gb per avere 8 paesi favorevoli alla Risoluzione e nessuno che eserciti il Diritto di Veto tra i 5 che hanno questo diritto (Usa, Gb, Russia, Cina, Francia). A tutt'oggi, stando a quanto dichiarato dalle diplomazie dei vari paesi, la Risoluzione Usa non avrebbe né la maggioranza e in più incapperebbe in alcuni Veti.
Le valutazioni: secondo Giulietto Chiesa (in una intervista a radio GAP -Onda d'urto- di Sabato 8 marzo) martedì tutti i paesi si piegheranno al volere Usa e la Risoluzione passerà (tesi un po' azzardata). Molti altri commentatori al contrario dicono che non passerà. Ma tutti danno per certo l'inizio della Guerra intorno al 17 Marzo.
Sul piano diplomatico la novità riguarda la mossa della Francia che ha chiesto la convocazione di un summit dei capi di stato dei paesi membri del Consiglio di Sicurezza, ossia un livello più alto dei ministri degli esteri che normalmente siedono all'ONU; questo perché la gravità della situazione lo richiede: guerra prossima e crisi dell'ONU, e intervento internazionale nel periodo post bellico.
Tattica e strategia militare: Stamattina il Sunday Telegraph, afferma che dopo le prime 72 ore di bombardamento l'Iraq si arrenderà e la guerra sarà finita. Altri media Usa, durante la settimana, sembravano scettici a sposare la scommessa di una "Blitzkrieg" (guerra lampo) per questa G.. In più c'è la difficoltà aggiunta ai generali Usa dal NO del parlamento Turco che non ha approvato la proposta governativa di consentire alle truppe Usa di attraversare il territorio turco. La Turchia ci ripenserà a breve? Resta un interrogativo.
Crisi dell'ONU e del rapporto Usa-UE: se il Consiglio di Sicurezza Onu si spaccherà (come è nelle previsioni) e gli Usa faranno la guerra contro le indicazioni dell'Onu (come è nelle previsioni), salteranno TUTTI gli organismi internazionali di mediazione costruiti in questi ultimi 60 anni, e anche la NATO avrà delle serie ripercussioni, nel senso che sarebbe di fatto sciolta.
Le analisi più attente e valide della settimana sui media americani ed europei (ed oggi anche su quelli russi) valutavano la sostanziale riuscita dell'operazione "neutralizzazione dell'Iraq", in quanto la presenza internazionale, gli occhi di tutto il mondo puntati su quel paese e l'aumento dei controlli hanno reso Saddam totalmente innocuo e dunque l'operazione si può dire riuscita e non serve più la Guerra, si tratta di mantenere questa pressione e non ci sarà più alcun pericolo. In realtà è questa la tesi francese della prima ora, e sarebbe l'unica scappatoia per Bush di uscirne senza rimetterci la faccia. Ma per ora sembra che Bush non voglia utilizzare.
Intanto l'ONU sta preparando un piano "segreto" per il "dopo guerra" : tre mesi dopo la fine del conflitto cercherà di intervenire come ONU per favorire l'autogoverno iracheno, evitando che rimanga un protettorato Usa, e per favorire una gestione collettiva delle fonti energetiche irachene. Ed è anche questo un punto di collisione tra ONU e USA, e questi ultimi non nascondono più la loro intenzione di "riformare radicalmente" l'ONU. Questa prospettiva è stata analizzata da alcuni commentatori ed è quella che più preoccupa, insieme alle altre preoccupazioni del dopo guerra che aprono preoccupanti scenari nell'equilibrio geopolitico dell'area asiatica e mediorientale.
_RAPPORTO ONU SU AIUTI UMANITARI DEL 02.04.03_ (BY gIORGIO)
Source: UN Office of the Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq Date: 2 Apr 2003
Iraq: Humanitarian Situation Report No. 14
1 HIGHLIGHTS UNOPS has begun an assessment of IDPs to establish a reliable figure of all IDPs currently in the three northern governorates. In Iran, there are constraints on the UN agencies' ability to monitor the situation of the whole border, due to presence of mines and unexploded ordnance in military zones and adjacent areas. According to the UNDP mine assessment, sites in Mehran and Khosravi cannot be regarded as being acceptable for refugees unless clearance is undertaken. According to the ICRC assessment in Ramadi and Fallujah (Anbar), there is a lack of electricity and water treatment facilities are operating at 40% capacity. Hospitals can currently cope with the influx of war wounded but there are minor shortages of medical supplies. 2 HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN IRAQ 2.1 TABLE OF ASSISTANCE FOOD - CROSS BORDER DELIVERIES SINCE 20 MARCH 2003 Item Quantities delivered (MT) Cumulative totals (MT) Location Remarks FOOD BASKET ITEMS 77 77 Northern WFP NON-FOOD ITEMS
ASSORTED NFIs 2 trucks
2.2 AFFECTED POPULATIONS Registered new IDPs (IOM/UNOPS) Location Numbers Trend Remarks Erbil 2323 increase Dahuk 617 no change Suleimaniyah 2255 no change TOTAL 5195 increase N.B. These figures only reflect the new caseload IDPs that fled from the Centre/South GoI controlled areas that have been registered. The figures do not include new caseload IDPs from within the three northern governorates nor the old caseload IDPs (estimated between 300,000 and 500,000) already hosted in camps. Third Country Nationals (as of 01 April) Location In transit Departed Camp population Remarks Jordan Ruwayshed 1207 935 272 Syria Tanf 0 0 0 Damascus 20 20 0
Al Bukamal 125 0 125 Sudanese nationals Tanf 32 32 0 Iran Khoshravi 144 144 0 2.3 OPERATIONAL ISSUES NORTH (Erbil, Dahuk, Sulaymaniyah) The security situation in Erbil, Dahuk, and Sulaymaniyah remains stable, despite nearby coalition air raids and sporadic GOI shelling of villages in Chamchamal, Sulaymaniyah. In Sulaymaniyah governorate, the situation in the Halabja area is gradually improving, though there was no significant return of people to the major urban areas. Schools in the three governorates remain closed for security reasons. WFP Turkey reported that the distribution of High Energy Biscuits to pupils has been temporarily stopped due to the closure of schools. Two trucks loaded with UNICEF supplies entered northern Iraq from Turkey at 16:00 hrs on 1 April, for onward travel to Dahuk. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the three-day delay at the Ibrahim Khalil border was due to the change in the status in the Oil for Food Programme. Erbil. The deployment of coalition forces, particularly in Ainkawa, has reportedly led to population displacement towards outlying villages. UNICEF sent 3,112kg of high protein biscuits to growth monitoring units and distributed 23 recreation kits to schools where IDPs have settled. UNICEF completed construction of 48 latrines, 32 baths and one bladder tank in the IDP camp in Soran/Erbil. Also in Soran, UNOPS has provided 323 tents for two camps. UNICEF and UNDP are installing Water and sanitation facilities and electricity at the Ashkawtawan camp. Another group of 23 ex-Iraqi army soldiers, who had recently fled GOI areas, have been settled temporarily in Ashkawtawan camp in Soran, and provided shelter and necessary relief items. This group is under the overall responsibility of ICRC. Sulaymaniyah. The drinking water network and tap stands in Bazyan camp have also been installed. UNOPS received 200 tents from HABITAT, and transferred 100 of them to Sordash camp, and the other 100 to Darbandikhan for Maidan camp. Three multi-sectoral assessment teams for health, nutrition, water and sanitation, rehabilitation, and child protection issues are in the field to assess and monitor UNICEF supported projects, the functioning of the civil service system and population movements in different locations of the governorate. 10 mobile health teams carried out assessments and outreach immunization activities. Dahuk. LA mobile outreach clinics and mobile immunization teams are visiting IDP families. Medical supplies are expected to run short soon if no replenishment of stocks is secured. UN agencies and Peace Winds Japan are to work together in dealing with the overburdening capacity of the local health centres in Hasanpirkha village, in Bamarne. LAs informed the UN that the electricity supply from Mosul could be disrupted. The governorate is currently receiving reduced supply of electricity (with insufficient voltage) from the national grid. Steps have been taken to bulk up the fuel stocks to operate water projects, health facilities and the 29 MW power plant. UNICEF's emergency plan is ready for the provision of fuel for diesel generator sets operating water pumps. Chlorine and pumps arrived on 1 April from Turkey. UNOPS completed the distribution of winter relief items to 100 newly arrived IDP at the 'Arab Singles' camp, and provided the camp with some 2,000 litres of kerosene. UNOPS-IDP started distribution of potable water by truck to 122 families, displaced from within the governorate, in Banda village, Mangeshke sub-district. CENTRAL (Ninewa, Tameem, Salah al-Din) NSTR BAGHDAD (Baghdad, Anbar, Diyala) ICRC reports that movement in the city has increased, possibly partly due to the breakdown in the telephone network affecting family communications. Most shops are closed but some open-air markets remain open. ICRC also reported an increased movement of population from Baghdad due to the bombardment. ICRC managed to conduct assessments in Ramadi and Fallujah (Anbar governorate) and reports the whole western area of Iraq from Heet to Fallujah has been without electricity since 29 March, when two major electricity substations were damaged during hostilities. Most water treatment facilities in the governorate are operated by back-up generators and function between 6 and 9 hours a day at 40% capacity. The assessment of the health facilities in Anbar showed that the hospitals can cope with the influx of war-wounded but minor shortages of medication were reported. ICRC will provide the missing items. UPPER SOUTH (Najaf, Qadissiya, Wassit, Babil, Kerbala) NSTR LOWER SOUTH (Basrah, Missan, Muthanna, Thi-Qar) A 3.5 km extension by the coalition of the water pipeline from Kuwait was completed 31 March. The pipeline simultaneously fills three 24,000 litre tankers every 45 minutes to be further transported to populations in need for free. According to the HOC, there are no 'permanently displaced civilians' in southern Iraq. The reasons behind the daily population movements reported by the media is yet to be explained. The HOC reports that Basrah airport is in good condition and the rail system in the Umm Qasr port area is also fair. The port is being assessed for mines/UXO presence. The repair of water plants in Basrah continues. Capacity is now estimated at 60%. The pipeline from Kuwait into Umm Qasr is now operational. 2.4 CONSTRAINTS Access On 31 March, two UNHCR mobile field teams in the east reached Semdinli, but were unable to proceed further towards the border. The UNHCR mobile field team in Silopi did not attempt any monitoring visits on 1 April, in light of the repeated access problems. UNHCR, however, continues its interventions with the Government regarding clearances for the mobile field teams to operate and carry out routine monitoring in the border areas, but without results so far. Logistics An IL 76 cargo aircraft with a capacity of 40-45 MT / 180 m³ is now deployed by UNHAS and is based in Brindisi. The aircraft is available for cargo lifts from destinations in Europe to the Middle East region. 2.5 - 2.6 NSTR 3 SECURITY UPDATE NSTR 4 HUMANITARIAN SITUATION IN NEIGHBOURING COUNTRIES 4.1 IRAN Overall humanitarian situation. UNHCR's sub office in Orumieh undertook a mission to potential sites in Piranshahr (Tamarchin site) and Sardasht (Qasemrash site) with WFP and BAFIA. Both sites are cleared and levelled, plots of agricultural land are leased from local farmers. Water source (river), electricity and telephone poles are available next to the proposed sites. The mission also visited an Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) warehouse and local sports hall that could be converted to a warehouse in Sardasht town. The government has activated an additional site (Tileh Kooh) for potential refugees of Kurdish origin. There are constraints on the UN agencies' ability to monitor the situation of the whole border, due to presence of mines and unexploded ordnance in military zones and adjacent areas. According to the UNDP mine assessment, the sites of Mehran and Khosravi cannot be regarded as being acceptable for refugees unless clearance is undertaken according to minimum standards WHO has reported an unconfirmed outbreak of dysentery in Iran. Security. A vehicle crashed into a compound wall of the British embassy in Tehran Monday 31 March, killing the driver. The vehicle, carrying extra drums of petrol, instantly exploded in flames, according to witnesses. No injuries to embassy staff were reported. The embassy is reviewing its security arrangements and is in discussions with the Iranian authorities. The incident is currently not considered as a terrorist attack, but the police are investigating. 4.2 JORDAN Overall humanitarian situation - The GoJ issued passes to all UN staff who need to access the border area and Ruwasheid. IOM has referred 70 Somali Third Country National (TCNs) persons to UNHCR for a "returnability" assessment. The 70 Somalis are accommodated in the TCNs camp and have indicated that they do not wish to return to Somalia. WHO identified 3 cases of active tuberculosis in the TCN camp. The patients are being treated. UNICEF has set-up an education tent for children in the TCN camp. It is now operational for 50 children. All children in the refugee camp and those willing to stay for more than a week in the TCN camp, will receive vitamin A supplements and measles vaccine on arrival. Cross-border operations - The 'All Our children group' shipped a truck with 5.5MT soap and 5.8MT of laundry detergent to Baghdad. These items will be delivered to UNICEF nutrition rehabilitation wards in 68 paediatric and district hospitals to cover the needs of 14,688 children. 4.3 KUWAIT Overall humanitarian situation Humanitarian flights are now exempt of all landing and parking fees. Fuel and handling fees have to be paid following normal tariffs. Updated and consolidated procedures for application for a Kuwaiti visa were presented to the UN by the MFA representative. A total of 18 NGOs have been registered in Kuwait, however they still experience difficulties becoming operational. One NGO was unable to purchase a vehicle, even after receiving a formal letter to this effect from Kuwaiti officials at the HOC. Cross-border operations - On 29 March Kuwaiti Red Crescent Society (KRCS) trucks carrying food to the Iraqi border were turned back by coalition forces as the shipment had not been cleared by the HOC prior to departure. The Kuwaiti Coordination Committee delivered 174,000 litres of water and 17,000 meals to Umm Qasr. There are no plans for distribution as yet. Security. Kuwait again came under missile attack twice on1 April; the first at 0200hrs when no warning was given, the second at 0905. Both were reported to have been intercepted and destroyed. 4.4 SAUDI ARABIA NSTR 4.5 SYRIA Overall humanitarian situation. UNHCR visited the refugee camp in Abu Kamal established by the Government and managed by the Red Crescent with the support of IFRC. The campsite, where 120 Saudi type of tents have been pitched, is very close to the border. Good quality camp infrastructures (electricity, water, access road etc.) have been installed by the authorities. As this camp is very close to the border, UNHCR considers that this camp, as well as the Tanf camp, usable only for transit centres from where refugees will be transported to the El Hol refugee camp. UNHCR reported rumours of insecurity along the road to Damascus via Antanaf, which force the refugees to take a road further north to reach Syria. MDM will support health and nutrition in Abu Kamal camp. MSF-Switzerland is preparing the health centre in El Hol camp. On 1 April, 948 Iraqi asylum seekers approached UNHCR for registration. The majority are Iraqis who had entered Syria before 20 March 2003, a small proportion of whom entered Syria between 1 and 20 March. Those who came during the first three weeks of March originate from southern and central Iraq. The reasons for departure range from fear of war, or of being forced to serve in the military and para-military forces, and deteriorating living conditions. 4.6 TURKEY Overall humanitarian situation - In the UN/Government meeting in Silopi, representatives of Turkish Red Crescent Society (TRCS) said that they have not set up camps yet because of the lack of refugees. However, the TRCS is confident they can set up camps within a three day period. Gaziantep, Urfa and Mardin airfields are closed to civilian traffic due to use of the air corridor by military traffic. Cross-border operations. Loading of 1,000 MT of WFP wheat flour destined to Dahuk in northern Iraq starts today. The trucks are expected to start reaching the border by 3 April. WFP has also confirmed the approval from the MFA to deliver another 5,000 MT across the border. 5 SECTORAL FOCUS - HEALTH COORDINATION ACTIVITIES WHO in Amman is preparing a list of medical supplies that will be needed in Iraq in the coming three months. The Health Coordination Group (HCG) met with the NGO community stationed in Jordan to discuss strategies for re-entry and response to the health crisis. The HCG assessment, surveillance and follow-up forms specific for the health sector prepared by WHO were circulated to NGOs and organizations. HIC conducted a session for NGOs and UN partners in Amman yesterday on the use of their Rapid Assessment Form. As a follow-up, training will now take place with WHO staff in Amman to ensure that different tools are consistent, compatible and complementary with the HIC system. Some forms are already translated into Arabic and Kurdish. All surveillance forms to be used in refugee camps in Jordan have been standardized; plans for outbreak preparedness will be discussed today between NGOs, UNICEF and WHO. 6 HQ ISSUES/ DEVELOPMENTS An initial assessment of contracts in the UN humanitarian pipeline for Iraq has identified over $1 billion worth of goods and supplies as potential priorities for delivery within the 45 day period until 12 May as provided by SCR1472. An identification of the most urgently needed supplies by UN agencies will be followed by adopting modalities which will allow for the rapid delivery to Iraq of these supplies